** NEW MERCH ** Jackets & Sweatshirts, Thermo Mugs!! Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store https://www.etsy.com/shop/DanielDavisDeepDive?ref=seller-platform-mcnav Vladimir Putin has again stated that Russia will take the Donbas—by negotiation or by force—and Western leaders should not be surprised. Analysts argue that Western refusal to accept battlefield realities only prolongs the war and Ukrainian suffering. Patrick Henningsen explains that recent long meetings between Putin and Trump-aligned negotiators like Ric Grenell, Jared Kushner, and Steve Witkoff show both sides are “in an understanding phase,” with Russia giving the U.S. team a crash course in geopolitical and historical realities. The positive sign, he says, is that Washington appears to finally acknowledge facts on the ground—especially that Ukraine will not join NATO. However, many points of the proposed 28-point peace plan remain unacceptable to Moscow, particularly any arrangement that leaves Russia without full control of the Donbas or the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant. Russia sees the plant, enriched uranium, and the region’s security as red lines. Russia is also skeptical of U.S. reliability after broken Biden-era commitments. Putin is signaling not only to Washington but also to Europe. He warns that Russia seeks no war with NATO, but will respond swiftly if Europe pursues escalation, including preemptive strike talk from Italy or conscription discussions in Germany. Moscow sees a widening split between the U.S. and Europe and is exploiting it. On diplomacy, Henningsen notes that Russia’s team (Lavrov, Ushakov, etc.) are highly experienced, while Trump’s envoys lack diplomatic training. Trump values personal trust over expertise, which helps politically but makes sealing a complex deal much harder. To succeed, Henningsen argues, Trump would need skilled diplomats to secure buy-in from Europe, NATO members, Democrats, and U.S. establishment figures—none of which is happening. Europe, excluded from the Trump–Russia channel, appears to be undermining the U.S. plan by proposing changes they know Russia will reject. Putin accused European leaders of deliberately sabotaging peace efforts so they can later blame Russia for failure. Zelensky was recently “stood up” by Witkoff in Dublin—another signal that the U.S. is deprioritizing Kyiv’s input. Europe continues pursuing its own path, including increased militarization and talk of preparing for war with Russia by 2027. According to Henningsen, Russia has learned not to trust Western promises and now treats Western negotiations with skepticism, assuming political theatrics and internal disputes will continue. Meanwhile, Russia intends to keep achieving objectives militarily while diplomacy drags on.