00:00 Middle East on the Brink: Iran, the Houthis & Russia-Ukraine 24:03 The Greenland Deal & the Future of America's Allies 1:11:41 Open Weight AI Models Are Taking Over 1:31:02 The Finland Gender Care Study 1:43:21 ICE, the Austin Shooting & Immigration Welcome to Impact Theory. Drew is out today, so Ryan steps up to co-host duties alongside Tom Bilyeu for a live show that spans a world on the edge. The State Department has issued a rare regional warning citing fear of rapid escalation, driven by intensifying Houthi attacks, Iranian threats and the possibility of US retaliation. Tom and Ryan open on the Middle East, from the Houthi ballistic missile barrage on Riyadh and the burning fuel depot near the airport, to the rumors that Trump pulled back from further strikes at the last minute, to the soaring cost of shipping oil as the Strait of Hormuz stays contested. From there the conversation widens into the bigger board. Ukraine unleashes its largest drone wave yet and debuts its new Flamingo cruise missile, and the crew unpacks the unsettling theory that peace in Russia and Ukraine could actually be more dangerous for Europe than the war itself. They connect the dots between China, Russia, Iran and North Korea, the pressure on Taiwan, and what a Senator Kennedy clip claims the classified Intel really showed about Iran's missile buildup. Then it's on to Greenland, where Trump takes a victory lap over a new US, Denmark and Greenland security agreement. Is it a genuine win or just a repackaging of the 1951 deal? A Danish MP weighs in, and the discussion turns to something bigger: the soft power America is bleeding, and the hard truth that in this era the world has no allies, only interests. The back half goes deep on the AI story nobody is pricing in. Open weight models have exploded from a rounding error to the majority of tokens generated, Chinese labs are outspending OpenAI on record days, and Tom lays out why the frontier labs are quietly appealing to the government while chipmakers and inference providers quietly win. Ryan pushes back with the open source case, and the two go a full round on it. Finally, a landmark Finland study tracking 25 years of gender affirming care forces a hard look at the data, and an ICE shooting in Austin opens a raw, extended debate on immigration, INS versus ICE, American culture, Sharia law, Christian nationalism and what it really takes to hold a country together. As Tom puts it, base assumptions control everything, and he and Ryan look at the same world and see very different things. Whether you are here for the geopolitics, the AI shakeup or the culture war, this one covers a world in flux from every angle. Sign up for my AI Masterclass:  https://tombilyeu.com/ai-masterclass?utm_campaign=TBS-Livestream&utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=social Check us out wherever you get your podcasts: Spotify:https://open.spotify.com/show/1nARKz2vTIOb7gC9dusE4b?si=a8daffd2bf1f48fd Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/tom-bilyeus-impact-theory/id1191775648 Do you need my help STARTING a business? Join me here inside ZERO TO FOUNDER: (https://tombilyeu.com/zero-to-founder) Get the exact systems, mindset shifts, and principles that built a $1B brand delivered straight to your inbox every week. Subscribe for free (https://tombilyeu.com) Check out our Video game - Project Kyzen: (https://projectkyzen.io/) Catch Me Streaming on Twitch -  (https://twitch.tv/tombilyeu) Link to IT discord: https://discord.gg/TZKJ2etPbT Tom's Favorite Things List:  https://amzn.to/41Ftt7e For Business inquiries: connect@impacttheory.com FOLLOW TOM: Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tombilyeu Twitter: https://x.com/TomBilyeu YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@TomBilyeu tom bilyeu show,tbs live,tom bilyeu,impact theory,iran,state department warning,houthi attack,riyadh,strait of hormuz,middle east war,russia ukraine,flamingo missile,china taiwan,senator kennedy,greenland deal,denmark,us allies,soft power,open weight ai,open source ai,deepseek,moonshot,anthropic,openai,vercel,ai bubble,finland study,acta paediatrica,ice,ice shooting,austin,immigration,ins,sharia law,christian nationalism,political podcast