What’s the most likely outcome for President Trump’s tariff strategy – trading partners capitulating, America’s economy and exceptionalism crumbling, or something in the middle? Hoover fellows and economists Michael Bordo and Mickey Levy discuss a recent paper they’ve published on the history of tariff impositions and four possible outcomes (none of them are good). Their conclusion: the odds favor a “less-worse” case of 12%-14% tariffs and deals with Canada and Mexico, with a “small but cumulative impact” on longer-run potential growth (maybe a mild recession) while the U.S. retains its global dominant status. Download the paper here: https://www.hoover.org/research/trump-tariff-outcomes-less-worse-case-best-case-scenario?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=mpp_description ABOUT THE PODCAST Matters of Policy & Politics will examine the direction of federal, state, and local leadership and elections, with an occasional examination of national security and geopolitical concerns, all featuring insightful analysis provided by Hoover Institution scholars and guests. For more information on this series, visit: https://www.hoover.org/publications/matters-of-policy-and-politics?utm_source=youtube&utm_medium=description&utm_campaign=mpp_youtube ___________________ The opinions expressed on this channel are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Hoover Institution or Stanford University. © 2025 by the Board of Trustees of Leland Stanford Junior University. 🔔 Subscribe for more discussions: @HooverInstitution 👍 Like and share this video! 🌐 Follow us on social media: • Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/HooverInstStanford • LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/hoover-institution-at-stanford-university • Instagram: https://instagram.com/hooverinstitution • X: https://www.twitter.com/HooverInst