Oil has obviously spiked massively since the start of the war with Iran. And if you look at various end products, such as jet fuel, the surge is even more extreme. And if the war is prolonged, or if the Strait of Hormuz continues to be functionally blocked, then this could just be the start of an even bigger spike. On this episode, we speak with Rory Johnston, the author of the Commodity Context newsletter. Rory is typically a very level headed guy, and not a doomer at all. And even he is quite alarmed. He says that the persistent closure of the Strait of Hormuz is such big disruption to contemplate that it’s typically used as the worse case scenario in industry thought experiments. He walks us through how oil could go to $200 a barrel or beyond, resulting in higher prices at the pump for American consumers, and perhaps significant shortages in the rest of the world. Read more: Trump Signals Possible End to War, Floats Removing Oil Sanctions (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/trump-insists-i-have-a-plan-as-oil-prices-surge-on-iran-war?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article) Venezuela Oil Buyer Says Its Cargo Is Sailing to Caribbean (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-03-09/venezuela-oil-shipment-booked-for-china-as-iran-roils-markets?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=podcast&utm_campaign=odd_lots&utm_content=article) Only Bloomberg - Business News, Stock Markets, Finance, Breaking & World News (http://bloomberg.com/) subscribers can get the Odd Lots newsletter in their inbox each week, plus unlimited access to the site and app. Subscribe at bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots (https://www.bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots?in_source=oddlotspodcast) Subscribe to the Odd Lots Newsletter (http://bloomberg.com/subscriptions/oddlots) Join the conversation: discord.gg/oddlots (https://discord.gg/oddlots) See omnystudio.com/listener (https://omnystudio.com/listener) for privacy information. Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal and Tracy Alloway analyze the weird patterns, the complex issues and the newest market crazes. Join the conversation every Monday and Thursday for interviews with the most interesting minds in finance, economics and markets. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts: https://bit.ly/BloombergPodcasts Check out more Odd Lots: https://youtube.com/playlist?list=PLe4PRejZgr0MuA6M0zkZyy-99-qc87wKV Get the Odd Lots newsletter via https://www.bloomberg.com/account/newsletters/oddlots And for all things Odd Lots, visit https://www.bloomberg.com/oddlots Visit our other YouTube channels: Bloomberg Television: https://www.youtube.com/@markets Bloomberg Originals: https://www.youtube.com/bloomberg Quicktake: https://www.youtube.com/@BloombergQuicktake #Bloomberg #Podcast #OddLots Visit us: https://www.bloomberg.com/podcasts Follow Bloomberg Podcasts on Twitter: https://twitter.com/podcasts For coverage on news, markets and more: http://www.bloomberg.com/video