Is non-consensus investing overrated—or the secret to venture returns? a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg is joined by Martín Casado (General Partner, a16z) and Leo Polovets (General Partner, Humba Ventures) to unpack the debate that lit up venture Twitter/X: should founders and VCs chase consensus, or run from it? They explore what “consensus” really means in practice, how market efficiency shapes venture outcomes, why most companies fail from indigestion, not starvation, and the risks founders face when they’re too far outside consensus. Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction 0:27 Consensus vs. Non-Consensus: Investor Perspectives 3:14 Market Efficiency and Company Valuations 6:06 Anecdotes and Data: Hot Rounds and Outcomes 11:10 The Role of Founders and Fundraising Dynamics 15:21 Risks and Rewards: Indigestion vs. Starvation 17:50 Market Cycles, Efficiency, and the AI Craze 19:54 Personal Startup Stories & Lessons Learned 32:46 Fund Size, Ownership, and Mega Outcomes 38:50 What's the New Norm? 43:39 Venture Identity vs. Market Reality 45:00 The Future of Venture: Efficiency, Competition, and Growth 54:00 Seed vs. Multi-Stage Funds: Who Wins? 55:24 Closing Thoughts Resources: Find Leo on X: https://x.com/lpolovets Find Martin on X: https://x.com/martin_casado Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details, please see a16z.com/disclosures.