Ryan Greenblatt from Redwood Research recently published "Getting 50% on ARC-AGI with GPT-4.0," where he used GPT4o to reach a state-of-the-art accuracy on Francois Chollet's ARC Challenge by generating many Python programs. Sponsor: Sign up to Kalshi here https://kalshi.onelink.me/1r91/mlst -- the first 500 traders who deposit $100 will get a free $20 credit! Important disclaimer - In case it's not obvious - this is basically gambling and a *high risk* activity - only trade what you can afford to lose. We discuss: - Ryan's unique approach to solving the ARC Challenge and achieving impressive results. - The strengths and weaknesses of current AI models. - How AI and humans differ in learning and reasoning. - Combining various techniques to create smarter AI systems. - The potential risks and future advancements in AI, including the idea of agentic AI. https://x.com/RyanPGreenblatt https://www.redwoodresearch.org/ TOC 00:00:00 Intro 00:01:38 Prelude on goals in LLMs 00:02:42 Ryan intro 00:03:11 Ryan's ARC Challenge Approach 00:38:15 Language models, reasoning and agency 01:14:14 Timelines on superintelligence 01:27:05 Growth of superintelligence 02:06:41 Reflections on ARC 02:11:49 Why wouldn't AI knowledge be subjective Host: Dr. Tim Scarfe Pod: https://podcasters.spotify.com/pod/show/machinelearningstreettalk/episodes/Ryan-Greenblatt---Solving-ARC-with-GPT4o-e2lnplq Refs: Getting 50% (SoTA) on ARC-AGI with GPT-4o [Ryan Greenblatt] https://redwoodresearch.substack.com/p/getting-50-sota-on-arc-agi-with-gpt On the Measure of Intelligence [Chollet] https://arxiv.org/abs/1911.01547 Connectionism and Cognitive Architecture: A Critical Analysis [Jerry A. Fodor and Zenon W. Pylyshyn] https://ruccs.rutgers.edu/images/personal-zenon-pylyshyn/proseminars/Proseminar13/ConnectionistArchitecture.pdf Software 2.0 [Andrej Karpathy] https://karpathy.medium.com/software-2-0-a64152b37c35 Why Greatness Cannot Be Planned: The Myth of the Objective [Kenneth Stanley] https://amzn.to/3Wfy2E0 Biographical account of Terence Tao’s mathematical development. [M.A.(KEN) CLEMENTS] https://gwern.net/doc/iq/high/smpy/1984-clements.pdf Model Evaluation and Threat Research (METR) https://metr.org/ Why Tool AIs Want to Be Agent AIs https://gwern.net/tool-ai Simulators - Janus https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/vJFdjigzmcXMhNTsx/simulators AI Control: Improving Safety Despite Intentional Subversion https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d9FJHawgkiMSPjagR/ai-control-improving-safety-despite-intentional-subversion https://arxiv.org/abs/2312.06942 What a Compute-Centric Framework Says About Takeoff Speeds https://www.openphilanthropy.org/research/what-a-compute-centric-framework-says-about-takeoff-speeds/ Global GDP over the long run https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/global-gdp-over-the-long-run?yScale=log Safety Cases: How to Justify the Safety of Advanced AI Systems https://arxiv.org/abs/2403.10462 The Danger of a “Safety Case" http://sunnyday.mit.edu/The-Danger-of-a-Safety-Case.pdf The Future Of Work Looks Like A UPS Truck (~02:15:50) https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2014/05/02/308640135/episode-536-the-future-of-work-looks-like-a-ups-truck SWE-bench https://www.swebench.com/ Using DeepSpeed and Megatron to Train Megatron-Turing NLG 530B, A Large-Scale Generative Language Model https://arxiv.org/pdf/2201.11990 Algorithmic Progress in Language Models https://epochai.org/blog/algorithmic-progress-in-language-models