Stephen Grugett is a cofounder of Manifold Markets, where anyone can create a prediction market. We discuss how prediction markets can change how countries and companies make important decisions. Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets/ Podcast website + Transcript: https://www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/stephen-grugett Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/3cDjwBF Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3RkZD12 Follow me on Twitter to be notified of future content: https://twitter.com/dwarkesh_sp TIMESTAMPS: Introduction 0:00:00 Predicting the future 0:02:29 Getting Accurate Information 0:05:16 Potentials 0:06:20 Not using internal prediction markets 0:09:29 Doing the painful thing 0:11:04 Decision Making Process 0:13:31 Grugett’s opinion about insider trading 0:14:52 The Role of prediction markets 0:16:23 Dealing with the Speculators 0:18:17 Criticism of Prediction Markets 0:20:33 The world when people cared about 0:22:24 Grugett’s Profile Background/Experience 0:26:10 User Result Market 0:28:49 The most important mechanism 0:30:17 The 100 manifold dollars 0:32:59 Efficient financial markets 0:40:30 Manifold Markets Job/Career Openings 0:46:28 Objectives of Manifold Markets 0:48:02