Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store https://www.etsy.com/shop/DanielDavisDeepDive?ref=seller-platform-mcnav Trump’s ambiguity – Colonel Jacques Baud argues that Donald Trump’s inconsistent stance toward arming Ukraine—saying “maybe” and “probably” instead of giving a firm “no”—created dangerous uncertainty. Tomahawk missile issue – He criticizes Trump for not refusing outright to send Tomahawk missiles, which are nuclear-capable. From Russia’s perspective, there’s no way to tell whether such missiles carry nuclear or conventional warheads, increasing the risk of nuclear miscalculation. Resulting tension – This ambiguity, Baud says, helped push Russia to reassert its power and display deterrence capabilities, such as unveiling new weapons like the nuclear-powered Burevestnik missile. European escalation – Meanwhile, Europe’s political and military leaders have taken an openly bellicose stance—deploying more troops, discussing readiness for war, and refusing to consider negotiations. Baud calls this attitude hysterical, arguing it worsens the conflict. Zelensky’s nuclear talk – He recalls reports that Zelensky once hinted Ukraine might develop its own nuclear weapons, possibly as leverage to pressure the U.S. into sending arms. Diplomatic contrast – Baud credits Trump, despite inconsistency, with at least attempting dialogue with both Putin and Zelensky, unlike European leaders who have rejected diplomacy and focused on sanctions and asset seizures. Russian response – Given the West’s mixed or hostile signals, Russia is expected to intensify military pressure on Ukraine while keeping the door open to a political solution—reflecting its doctrine that war is “the continuation of politics by other means.” Internal dynamics in Moscow – Baud notes that Putin is restraining hardliners who want total destruction of Ukraine. Putin’s original goal, he says, was neutrality, not annihilation. But the lack of Western diplomatic engagement strengthens Russian hawks and could push escalation further. Symbolism of the missile test – The public display of the Burevestnik missile is interpreted as Putin’s way of showing strength without full escalation, using deterrence rather than all-out war.