A combined September and October jobs report could negatively impact the market.

“What I think you might end up getting is I think you might end up getting a double jobs release where you you basically get the September and October jobs data in like one mega jobs report. Dude, that could freak out Marcus.”

Economic data measuring the national economy has become less meaningful for the majority of the population due to the concentration of consumption among the top 20% of earners.

“it no longer means anything for the majority of people who are living in the country. And so you can't really assess.”

The two-sector job growth pattern is problematic because many economic indicators are buoyed by wealthy spending that does not reflect the broader material reality for most people.

“The problem is is that many of our economic indicators GDP and others um are being buoyed by really really wealthy people spending ungodly amounts of money but it's not necessarily indicative of what's and that money gets getting just churned within a very narrow band of our population.”

Government job reports coming out after a shutdown are likely to provide more noise than signal due to historical revision trends and the disruption of the shutdown.

“So, yeah, maybe it does cause a little bit of volatility, but in my mind, it's really going to be much more noise than it is going to be signal.”

The current low hiring rate in the labor market suggests a much weaker economy than the headline unemployment figure indicates.

“Right now, the hiring rate, the rate at which employers are bringing new people on is at the lowest level since 2012, except for a brief moment during the pandemic. That low level is typically what we see when unemployment is at 8%.”

The global financial system faces a significant risk of a credit crisis due to excessive debt-to-GDP levels and the unsustainable nature of global central bank policies.

“Global debt to GDP is 310%. Reserve currency status to the side, the spending problem at the federal, state, local level, the spending problem at every country to basically keep economies growing to support existing leverage, ultimately creates a cascading effect. It ultimately breaks.”

Rising oil prices are a significant concern as they contribute to inflationary pressures that the Federal Reserve will be forced to address.

“This causes problems, right? Because this as prices go up, it it flows through into inflation. So, then then you've got that problem that the Fed is going to have to deal with.”

The economy is currently flat to weak, making this the worst state the economy has been in entering previous conflict periods.

“this is certainly the I'd say like the worst state the economy has been going into one of these conflicts. Is that fair to say? >> Yeah. >> I think that's where >> that's why the econ the economy is is flat. Flat to weak.”

The divergence between rising gold and falling crude oil is a historically scary sign of potential economic trouble.

“Certainly in a year with gold going up and crude going or oil going down and that disparity being the greatest in history, I mean clearly we only go back 100 years but crude oil didn't really matter 100 years ago, is quite scary from my standpoint from what I see what it might mean.”