He believes the most important driver for stock market performance is whether actual earnings growth matches current expectations.

“I'm in the camp that this is like the most important thing, and if this comes in as advertised, which of course we can't know for sure, I think it'll be a good year for stocks.”

He argues that historical data shows no reliable relationship between individual metrics like interest rates or PE ratios and future one-year stock market returns.

“especially on one on a year one-year basis, there is no relationship, whether it's interest rates, whether it's strategists' price targets, whether it's PE ratios, whether it's the Fed beginning to cut rate Whatever it is, like there's no relationship between a single, you know, metric and one-year ”