The recent economic jobs report shows signs of difficulty, particularly noting losses in manufacturing jobs and a downward trend when excluding healthcare positions.

“But, uh, we did lose 26,000 manufacturing jobs, uh, in May and June. If you take out the healthcare jobs, we've actually lost jobs now for 3 months. Everywhere else we've lost jobs. So, it was uh Yeah, it was below expectations. Unemployment rate ticked up and massive revision just the last couple m”

There is a genuine concern regarding weakening labor market conditions that is being ignored in current optimistic projections.

“There's no question that jobs are weakening. No question question there at all.”

Dave Sekera anticipates increased market volatility in 2026 due to AI-related valuation concerns, political uncertainty, and potential economic slowing.

“But I think you also then want to offset that with very high-quality, value-oriented stocks, and be able to balance out the potential for elevated volatility that I expect to see here in 2026.”

The United States is currently in a recession that will likely be a rough year or two before the economy recovers due to its resilient nature.

“We think I think we're in a recession. I mean, I don't I don't know if someone's already said this, but we're in a recession. We're in a recession and this will be like my, I don't know, 100th cycle or something.”

Real GDP growth is expected to slow to an average of 1.7% in 2025 and 2026 as the economy absorbs the impact of tariffs and other macroeconomic headwinds.

“we're expecting real GDP growth to average 1.7% over 2025 and 26. A little over 1 percentage point slower than the 2.8% we averaged over 2022 to 24.”

The US economy is performing reasonably well, is not collapsing, and is not facing the level of runaway inflation that some analysts expected.

“I think the US economy is doing fairly well. It has its issues. It's not collapsing. It's not having a runaway inflation that everyone expected. Uh you have inflation, but it's not a disaster.”

The United States economy is currently in a state of expansion, and an imminent recession is not anticipated.

“largely speaking, the US remains an expansion, in our view, and we don't see an imminent recession.”

Adam Johnson believes the U.S. economy remains strong due to positive corporate performance, job creation, and substantial capital investment stimulus.

“Look at the economy, GDP, the economy itself, growing almost 4%. That's a lot stronger than than people thought. Meanwhile, unemployment, I know that there's been a lot of talk about weakening um jobs trends, but we're still creating 50,000 jobs on average per month.”

Despite facing challenges like debt and political division, the United States remains resilient due to its strong institutions, culture, and history of innovation.

“I really believe in this country. I think we have a great culture. I think we have stronger institutions than people think. I think we have people that are better than people often appreciate and we are innovative. We're not scared of failure. And I think we have a really good formula.”

The underlying fundamentals of the US economy, including GDP growth and corporate earnings, remain solid.

“I mean, US GDP according to the Fed is tracking kind of mid four mid-4% range. Our economic surprise index is kind of off the chart. Earnings were solid. You're expecting some good tax refunds coming up. So, the sort of fundamental underpinnings of the market look pretty good.”

The Federal Reserve's hesitation to cut rates is politically motivated, as the economy is currently showing strong growth.

“The problem that Jerome Powell has is that he's trying to smooth it because it allows him to justify his political decision.”

The Federal Reserve should cut interest rates because the current economic data, specifically from the second quarter, shows growth and moderating inflation.

“So I think that again in the absence of politics you cut”

He believes the Federal Reserve is currently prioritizing data over forward-looking action, leaving the economy in a period of settling.

“So, what's going on right now is the Fed is letting the economy settle.”

The Federal Reserve is in a dovish position and is likely to continue cutting interest rates as long as unemployment rises.

“The Fed is dovish, very dovish. And they and they there's one of the dual mandates is not going to get better. It's going to get worse and the Fed is going to cut. As long as employment, unemployment is rising, the Fed is going to cut.”