The impact of the presidential debate on the polls has been minimal, consistent with other major events in the race.

“the impact of the debate is similar to the impact of Donald Trump being convicted of a felony and Donald Trump being shot in the ear which is about a point and he says this is it's just the other reminder that this is a game of inches and you're just not seeing gigantic movement”

Alastair Campbell observes that current polling data is having a more significant impact on voter perception than in previous elections.

“In this uh restless politics jail partners poll, which is we're beginning to see that polling itself is having more of an effect on people's views than in almost any previous election.”

He believes polling companies are broken and have lost their nerve, suggesting that one should look at fundamentals instead.

“the polling companies are much more broken than people understand they've miscalled elections catastrophically for a very long time now they were doing it actually even with Reagan but recently since people stopped answering their landlines it's become more and more dodgy”

The argument that voters care more about electability than other issues is currently ineffective in the Republican primary.

“Republicans now think Joe Biden is so weakened politically that electability arguments are not working with them”

He argues that polling accuracy has declined significantly since people stopped answering landlines.

“polling companies are much more broken than people understand they've miscalled elections catastrophically for a very long time now they were doing it actually even with Reagan but recently since people stopped answering their landlines it's become more and more dodgy”

Polling is currently ineffective and inaccurate, particularly because pollsters fail to account for the participation of voters under thirty.

“polling is just completely [ __ ] broken in this country it's just complete completely [ __ ] broken you had a hard time pulling actual numbers of right Wingers leading up to 2020 and now you have an incredibly [ __ ] hard time polling under 30 populations before the next election”

He expresses skepticism toward anyone who asserts strong confidence in their interpretation of current poll numbers.

“and you know my overall thing here um you know the last uh the last two months really has been I just don't trust confidence you know period uh the more confidently somebody's asserting they see something in the polls or the early vote the more skeptical I become”

He believes the presidential race remains a toss-up and there are no signs of a significant late break for either candidate in the swing states.

“I don't see any sign of a late break at this point late breaks do happen as you know you know we've seen them in the past uh but we're not seeing any indications of that now late break one way or the other”