The perception that the Ukraine conflict is becoming a status quo of graft rather than a winnable war is reassuring to investors and positive for equity markets.

“if a story like this is true it actually takes one of those big risks off the table which is this idea that now it's like every other kind of a thing which is it's the reason we spend money there is not to win something that's winnable it's just graft it's just typical corruption”

David Hunter expects the S&P 500 to reach 9,500 in the coming months before reaching a top, followed by an 80% bear market.

“I am looking for 9500 uh for the S&P. um not not by the end of the year, but certainly first quarter is very possible and and likely, I think.”

The market outlook for 2026 is expected to be tumultuous but likely to end on a positive note.

“it's going to be tumultuous, but I think it'll end positive and then 2027 that we'll have Iceberg Slim show up.”

The base case for 2026 is a modest recession in the United States, especially if investment in AI slows down.

“I think it's we are resting on two fragile pillars uh in terms of economic growth. AI capex spending and higher income consumer spending. Uh especially with AI capex, there are a number of different potential speed bumps and we've already seen them emerge somewhat, right? We could see nimi movements”

The current economic environment and high uncertainty require a shift away from passive indexing toward active portfolio management and resilience.

“now is the time where all of a sudden um no longer are you in that passive environment where an index is going to just give you some certainty. I can point you to a number of different screens right now. um and we can touch on that thorny issue of private equity, you know, where where you don't have”

Market volatility will be significantly higher in 2026 than in 2025, with both downside and upside risks.

“When I'm thinking about volatility in 2026, I suspect it's actually going to be a lot higher over the course of the full year of 2026 than what we saw in 2025.”

Tariffs have had a minimal impact on overall GDP growth but have created a drag on businesses that are absorbing the costs.

“As it stands, the the economy has been very minimally impacted by the tariffs in terms of the rate of GDP growth.”