Do tariffs help rebuild American manufacturing or hold it back? In this episode, American Compass founder and chief economist Oren Cass sits down with commentator and author Noah Smith and a16z General Partner Erik Torenberg for a lively debate on the future of U.S. industry. They discuss the case for tariff-driven re-industrialization versus free-market approaches, the role of allies in trade policy, and what the numbers really show about manufacturing jobs, investment, and output. Along the way, they challenge each other’s assumptions and explore what it would take to actually bring more production back to American soil. Timecodes: 0:00 Introduction & Framing the Free Trade Debate 0:50 American Compass & Economic Philosophy 3:50 The Limits of Free Markets and Policy Implications 5:04 Rethinking Comparative Advantage & Modern Trade 9:08 Tariffs: American Tradition vs. Chinese Strategy 10:25 Evaluating the Impact of Trump’s Tariffs 12:15 Short-Term Pain vs. Long-Term Gain in Manufacturing 15:41 Data, Indicators, and the State of US Manufacturing 24:21 The Role of Industrial Policy and Workforce Development 45:24 Trade Deficits and Scale 52:23 Global Competition 1:02:40 Negotiating with Allies and the Limits of Tariff Threats Resources: Find Oren on X: https://https://x.com/oren_cass American Compass: https://americancompass.org/ Find Noah on X: https://x.com/noahpinion Subscribe to Noah’s Substack: https://www.noahpinion.blog/ Stay Updated: Let us know what you think: https://ratethispodcast.com/a16z Find a16z on Twitter: https://twitter.com/a16z Find a16z on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/company/a16z Subscribe on your favorite podcast app: https://a16z.simplecast.com/ Follow our host: https://x.com/eriktorenberg Please note that the content here is for informational purposes only; should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice or be used to evaluate any investment or security; and is not directed at any investors or potential investors in any a16z fund. a16z and its affiliates may maintain investments in the companies discussed. For more details please see a16z.com/disclosures.