Paul Kedrosky is an investor, analyst, and writer who studies technology, markets, and the forces shaping the global economy. Kedrosky joins Big Technology Podcast to discuss why he believes the historic surge in AI infrastructure spending has created a bubble that could soon unravel. Tune in to hear why rapidly falling token prices, constant hardware upgrades, and increasingly debt-funded data centers may make it extraordinarily difficult for investors to earn adequate returns. We also cover whether OpenAI and Anthropic can move up the software stack, what might cause the investment cycle to collapse, China’s competing approach, and what AI could look like after the bubble bursts. Hit play for a clear-eyed debate about whether transformative technology can still produce a disastrous investment cycle. Chapters: 00:00 Is the AI boom a bubble? 01:24 The unprecedented scale of AI spending 05:26 What returns would justify the buildout? 10:36 Why data centers are not like real estate 16:12 Can rising demand offset falling token prices? 23:05 OpenAI and Anthropic move up the stack 30:44 AI models become commodities 34:18 The “this time is different” argument 40:15 Are investors really betting on AGI? 46:56 What could cause the bubble to burst? 53:38 What happens when the music stops? 58:11 China’s AI strategy and the future after the bubble --- Enjoying Big Technology Podcast? Please rate us five stars ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ in your podcast app of choice. Watch the full documentary here: https://www.gravitee.io/ai-agent-documentary Want a discount for Big Technology on Substack + Discord? Here’s 25% off for the first year: https://www.bigtechnology.com/subscribe?coupon=0843016b