Daniel Davis Deep Dive Merch: Etsy store https://www.etsy.com/shop/DanielDavisDeepDive?ref=seller-platform-mcnav As the Russia–Ukraine war approaches its fourth anniversary, the discussion opens with surprise that rather than pursuing de-escalation, reports suggest former President Donald Trump is considering authorizing a new Ukrainian offensive, potentially involving U.S.-supplied Tomahawk cruise missiles. Trump posted on Truth Social that he was “speaking to President Putin” and would report the results later—a post made mid-conversation, which the host notes as “very Trump-like.” Analyst Ian Proud, a former British diplomat with service in Moscow, joins to interpret what might be behind Trump’s outreach to Putin and how it connects to Zelensky’s recent request for Tomahawk missiles. Proud recalls that about a week earlier, Zelensky formally asked for the weapons, and Trump had said he would consult with Putin before deciding. Proud expects that to be the main topic of the call, since Putin would strongly oppose the U.S. granting Ukraine long-range Tomahawk missiles. He predicts Putin would warn that such a move would trigger escalation, similar to Russia’s response a year earlier when the U.S. provided ATACMS missiles. The Russian ambassador to the U.K., interviewed earlier in the day, had also warned that supplying Tomahawks would be viewed as a “serious escalation” because the missile can carry a nuclear variant and would likely involve direct U.S. personnel in targeting or launch operations. He said Moscow would have to respond “very seriously” but refused to specify how. Proud interprets that diplomatic language as a clear threat of retaliation—possibly against U.S. assets—but believes Putin might instead opt for a symbolic military strike, as he did the previous year. Proud predicts Trump will ultimately decline to send Tomahawks, seeing little advantage in provoking Russia. However, the host expresses skepticism, citing Trump’s recent remarks suggesting he’s open to authorizing a Ukrainian offensive. Trump had said Zelensky “wants to go offensive” and that he would “make a determination” soon, ahead of Zelensky’s scheduled visit to Washington. Proud calls the idea of a new offensive “completely crazy”, explaining that Ukraine no longer has the troop strength or armored resources to sustain major operations. Any offensive now would likely mean only limited missile strikes, not a genuine ground campaign. He sees Zelensky’s request as an attempt to escalate the conflict and pull NATO closer in, hoping to provoke a Russian overreaction that could force greater Western involvement. They review Ukraine’s past offensives: the late-2022 operations that pushed Russia out of parts of Kherson and Kharkiv, followed by the failed 2023 counteroffensive planned with British assistance. Since that failure, Proud notes, Ukraine has remained largely defensive, losing ground slowly while Russia consolidates. He says the current war “hasn’t made sense” since August 2023, as Ukraine’s offensive capacity collapsed and Russia adopted a slow, attritional strategy—minimizing its own casualties while inflicting steady losses through artillery, drones, and glide bombs. He argues that any large-scale Ukrainian troop movement now would suffer catastrophic casualties, since Russia dominates the air and artillery domains. Meanwhile, the Kremlin is fighting not for quick land gains but for time, betting that Europe will eventually exhaust its financial and political will to keep bankrolling Kyiv. In Proud’s view, this makes Zelensky’s push for escalation particularly reckless—it risks provoking a wider confrontation just as Russia is settling into a patient, resource-draining approach. NATO members, especially in Europe, remain timid and divided: though rhetoric has grown more hawkish (notably from Poland and the U.K.), few have the manpower or appetite to intervene directly. The discussion concludes that Putin is content to let the war grind on slowly, bleeding Western resolve, while Zelensky is desperate to regain momentum through high-risk escalation. Proud expects Trump, after speaking with both leaders, to reject Zelensky’s request for Tomahawks and avoid authorizing any offensive—though the political and media pressure around him may continue to build.