Iran is potentially signaling a desire to engage in substantive talks by allowing limited vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

“there are no indications that someone is talking, and it does look like there was some element of showing they were talking to the right people with the administration by allowing one vessel through the strait of hormuz yesterday.”

There is a significant gap between the US and Iran regarding the terms of a ceasefire, with the US seeking a shorter duration and Iran demanding a full cessation of hostilities.

“I think what is clear is there is significant daylight right now between the United States and Iran, with the U.S. looking for maybe a one-month cease-fire, Iran demanding a full cessation of hostilities.”

A movement toward an offramp from the current war is occurring, which could lead to a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities.

“I think the number one thing is offramp. This administration is looking for an offramp from the current status of the war and that means this could lead to a process and that could lead to a cease fire or cessation of hostilities and that would be good for the markets I would think.”