Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have not caused a massive, sustained spike in oil prices because Iranian oil is already largely embargoed from the market.

“Also Iranian oil is not on the market. Like it's it's literally it's a it's embargoed. Like it's uh the Chinese buy it. So, if the Chinese have to substitute Venezuelan oil and Iranian oil and they have to come to the regular market or whatever the mechanics are, maybe there'll be a little bit of a ”

He thinks that the threat of the president annexing Greenland is nonsensical.

“nonsensical, if you ask me.”

Steven Feldman argues that the world has entered a state of 'hard power' and 'naked power' dynamics, making major-power conflict the most significant global threat.

“It's now about naked power and spheres of influence.”

The current geopolitical tension creates a wide range of uncertain outcomes that cannot be simplified into a single base case scenario.

“So you have this is something I hate to say which is the range of outcomes is wide because it always sounds like an out but right now really you have these I call it a biodal distribution.”

European Union member states are currently divided in their responses to the conflict in Iran and their approaches toward US policy.

“so at the moment the Europeans are very much divided and from a US side the Europeans do not appear as particularly useful allies in this war.”

The current Middle East conflict is more likely to be inflationary than stagflationary for the United States economy.

“For us, it's more inflationary than stagflationary. From a growth perspective, the US has the advantage of being a net exporter of energy.”

Geopolitical tensions typically have a muted and short-lived effect on financial markets unless they are prolonged.

“I think it was telegraphed, in terms of the hedges institutions had put on, but they were preparing not for a full-blown war, but this level of altercation, but geopolitical tensions. What we are seeing is in general, geopolitical issues, unless they are prolonged, have a very muted effect on market”

The administration's messaging on the war in Iran is contradictory and lacks a clear definition of what a successful outcome entails.

“The administration has given succeeding, sometimes contradictory explanations for why it is doing this. Whether it is a desire for regime change. President Trump indicated that, Pete Hegseth said it is not about regime change but the ballistic missile program, drone strikes. You have seen them gradu”