Polling data suggesting Democrats are leading in generic congressional ballots should be interpreted as a clear trend line that is unfavorable to Republicans.

“But five polls all showing Democrats up on average more than eight points is a clear trend line and one that does not bode well for Republicans.”

The recent polls showing Democrats with a lead are potentially outliers due to the intense focus on Trump's unpopular policies.

“But I think look, I think the these numbers are [snorts] excellent. And we may look back and just say that this was these were a little bit of outliers because there the polls were at a moment of intense focus on the Iran war and tariffs, Trump's two worst issues.”