Who is going to win the 2024 US Presidential election? Could the polls be wrong yet again? What is the relationship between playing professional poker and betting on politics? Why has Elon Musk endorsed Donald Trump? Alastair and Rory are joined by legendary forecaster Nate Silver to answer all these questions and more. 00:15 Introducing Nate Silver 00:45 Nate’s story 02:45 The role of risk in politics 08:06 How polls work and how they could be improved 10:15 The link between politics and Silicon Valley 17:30 Nate Silver's politics 18:25 Defining wokeness and if it's gone too far 21:48 Meeting Sam Bankman Fried and reporting on his fall 27:30 The difference between being a poker player and a politician 30:27 Long term forecasts for democracy 34:54 Who will win the US election? 42:35 Long-term vs short-term predictions 43:25 Both Tim Walz and JD Vance were a mistake as VP picks 45:45 Debrief Podcast Episode: 98 TRIP Plus: Become a member of The Rest Is Politics Plus to support the podcast, receive our exclusive newsletter, enjoy ad-free listening to both TRIP and Leading, benefit from discount book prices on titles mentioned on the pod, join our Discord chatroom, and receive early access to live show tickets and Question Time episodes. Just head to https://www.therestispolitics.com/ to sign up. ✅ Subscribe Here: www.youtube.com/@LeadingTRIP ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 🎙️ Listen To The Podcast: https://lnk.to/LeadingYT ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 📱 Follow Us On Socials: Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/restispolitics/ Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/restispolitics/ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@restispolitics Twitter: https://twitter.com/RestIsPolitics