Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/seanmcarroll Blog post with audio player, show notes, and transcript: https://www.preposterousuniverse.com/podcast/2025/05/19/315-branden-fitelson-on-the-logic-and-use-of-probability/ Every time you see an apple spontaneously break away from a tree, it falls downward. You therefore claim that there is a law of physics: apples fall downward from trees. But how can you really know? After all, tomorrow you might see an apple that falls upward. How is science possible at all? Philosophers, as you might expect, have thought hard about this. Branden Fitelson explains how a better understanding of probability can help us decide when new evidence is actually confirming our beliefs. Branden Fitelson received a Ph.D. in philosophy from the University of Wisconsin-Madison. He is currently Distinguished Professor of Philosophy at Northeastern University. He is a co-founder of the Formal Epistemology Workshop, and winner of the 2020 Wolfram Innovator Award. Mindscape Podcast playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrxfgDEc2NxY_fRExpDXr87tzRbPCaA5x Sean Carroll channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/seancarroll #podcast #ideas #science #philosophy #culture